Serbia Real Estate Market Forecast 2025-2026: Should You Buy an Apartment Now?
Macroeconomic Trends: The Impact of Inflation and Mortgage Rates
The current situation in the Serbian housing market is largely determined by macroeconomic factors. The rise in inflation and Euribor rates has led to a significant increase in the cost of mortgage loans, with interest rates reaching 6-7%. This has directly impacted the purchasing power of the population using borrowed funds.
According to analytics from the Republic Geodetic Authority (RGZ), there has been a noticeable decline in the number of sales transactions. Despite the decrease in activity, real estate prices are showing resilience and are not yet in a hurry to fall. This paradoxical situation—fewer buyers, but stable prices—creates an atmosphere of uncertainty.
- Rising Euribor rates, making mortgages more expensive.
- High inflation, reducing real incomes.
- A decrease in the number of transactions, according to RGZ data.
- Sellers holding firm on prices, especially in the high-quality housing segment.
Resale Market vs. New Developments: The Price Gap is Widening
A growing divergence between old housing stock and new developments is becoming increasingly apparent in the Serbian real estate market. While resale properties, especially those needing renovation, are slowly starting to decrease in price due to lower demand, new developments are holding their prices firm. The main reason for this dynamic is the high cost of construction materials and labor, which prevents developers from lowering prices without sacrificing profitability.
Investors and buyers are increasingly preferring new homes that do not require additional renovation costs and offer modern layouts and infrastructure. Old housing stock is only becoming attractive if sellers offer significant discounts.
This gap is likely to widen, making the choice between old and new properties even more critical for buyers.
Regional Analysis: From Overheated Belgrade to Promising Vojvodina
An analysis of the Serbian housing market is impossible without a regional breakdown, as the situation varies dramatically across the country. Belgrade remains the financial and business center, but its market can be described as overheated. Prices here have reached peak levels, and the potential for further growth is limited.
Novi Sad, the second-largest city, also shows high prices but with more stable dynamics. The rest of Vojvodina is currently of real interest to investors. Cities like Subotica and Sombor are showing steady growth in demand and prices due to infrastructure development and a more affordable cost of living.
- Belgrade: Overheated market, high barrier to entry, risks of price stagnation.
- Novi Sad: Consistently high demand, but prices are already at a high level.
- Vojvodina (Subotica, Sombor): Growing potential, more affordable prices, attractive for real estate investment.
The Foreign Demand Factor: The Role of Relocants and the Diaspora
Foreign demand continues to have a significant impact on the market, especially in major cities. The two main groups of foreign buyers are relocants and members of the Serbian diaspora. These categories of buyers often have higher purchasing power and are focused on high-quality, modern housing.
Relocants moving to Serbia for work create demand for both rentals and purchases in the central districts of Belgrade and Novi Sad. The diaspora, in turn, actively invests in real estate in their homeland, viewing it as a way to preserve capital and an option for future return. This external demand is an important factor preventing prices from a deeper correction.
Forecast for 2025-2026: Awaiting EXPO 2027 and Infrastructure Projects
The long-term forecast for real estate prices in Serbia is closely linked to the implementation of large-scale government projects. These are expected to be a powerful stimulus for the economy and the housing market, especially in the capital region. These projects are anticipated to increase the country's investment appeal and create new jobs.
- International Exhibition EXPO 2027: Will require the construction of new infrastructure, hotels, and residential complexes in Belgrade.
- Belgrade Metro Construction: Will improve transport accessibility in certain districts and lead to an increase in real estate prices along the metro lines.
- Development of the high-speed rail network: Will improve connectivity between cities, making real estate in the regions more attractive.
The main question is what will prevail in the coming years: the current economic cooling or the future infrastructure boom. Most analysts lean towards a scenario of price stagnation in 2025, followed by slow growth as 2027 approaches, rather than a market crash.
Investor Strategy: Buy or Wait?
In the current conditions, an investor faces two main strategies: 'Buy' or 'Hold' (wait). The choice depends on goals, planning horizon, and risk tolerance. There is no single right answer, and each decision has its pros and cons.
The 'Buy' strategy may be justified for those who have found a liquid property at a reasonable price, especially in promising areas or in the new development segment. Buying now locks in the cost before a new growth cycle, which could be triggered by projects like EXPO 2027.
The 'Hold' strategy is suitable for more cautious investors. It allows them to wait for more clarity on mortgage rates and see how the market responds to economic challenges. However, there is a risk that by the time a decision is made, prices will rise again, and a favorable moment will be missed.
